He’s here. Kevin Stefanski is Atlanta’s newest head coach, and he faces a daunting job with these Falcons fresh off a rough stint in Cleveland. The Falcons were one of the league’s most exciting teams a decade ago and Stefanski one of its most promising coaches more recently than that, but the past several years have diminished both.
Now begins a critical chapter for team and coach. The Falcons need to break an eight-year streak of losing seasons and prove they haven’t just been collecting interesting talent with no real team-building plan, and they’re turning to Stefanski to wrangle this roster into a winner. Stefanski needs to—and wants to—show that the losing and dysfunction that came to define the past couple seasons of his tenure with the Browns was due to the front office and ownership more than his ability to coach and lead. Matt Ryan shied away from a first-time head coach or a truly familiar face and went with a seasoned, offensively minded option well-regarded by past players but fired by one of the least competent organizations in football. Like every other hire this cycle and every other cycle, it’s a bet rather than a sure thing.
So why did the Falcons hire Stefanski? What does he bring to the table, and where might he stumble?
Why they did it
There are a few reasons.
One is demeanor, which we’ll end up talking about a lot in this piece. Matt Ryan clearly remembers his days with Mike Smith, Mike Mularkey, Kyle Shanahan, Dirk Koetter, and Dan Quinn fondly, because he described someone with the ability to be calm and even-keeled, a coach who can connect effectively with players, and a proven leader as some of his requirements. There will always be quibbles, but Stefanski clearly checked those boxes with the Falcons; their level of interest in John Harbaugh (similarly regarded as a reasonable, players’ coach option) tells you they were looking hard at a certain personality type.
While Ryan promised not to be married to an offensive-minded head coach, casting a wide net with interviews, the Falcons always seemed likely to hire one. Their offensive coordinator carousel under Dan Quinn in particular—they ran through Kyle Shanahan, Steve Sarkisian, and Dirk Koetter in six seasons—likely left a lasting impression on Ryan, who is looking to get this organization to build around Michael Penix Jr. or (failing that) another young quarterback who will benefit from continuity and stability. The failure of Zac Robinson to consistently lift the Falcons offense underscored how fraught the hiring process can be for a defensive-minded head coach, too, but the Falcons have far too much money and far too many draft picks invested in that side of the ball for mediocrity.
The Falcons, no strangers to losing and dysfunction of their own, likely came to feel comfortable with Stefanski stepping into a tough situation and being able to both keep his cool and lift the boats in Atlanta’s particular harbor. They know he lost and lost a lot the last two years with the Browns, but his ability to hold the locker room together likely appealed to them as much as his offensive acumen. Ryan and Blank also would be aware of both the aftermath of the Deshaun Watson trade—it could have been Atlanta, after all—and Cleveland’s reputation for being a difficult place for coaches to work. Stefanski actually has experience guiding a team to the playoffs within the past five seasons—the last coach who Atlanta hired that had that experience as a head coach was Dan Reeves—and has plenty of connections to build a staff.
In essence, the Falcons chose Stefanski because of who he is (or at least who they believe him to be), his track record as an offensive mind and experience as a head coach, and because they believe he’ll be a stabilizing force for a franchise that has been anything but stable.
Why it might work
Start with the run game. Stefanski prizes a good one, has been able to get the most out of not just great players like Nick Chubb but also lesser lights like D’Ernest Johnson, Jerome Ford, and Pierre Strong, and is a varied and creative play caller. If you got tired of Bijan having to turn every outside run into an exercise in heroism because defenses knew what was coming, you’ll likely enjoy Stefanski’s willingness and ability to vary the looks defenses are getting and maximize Robinson’s skillset. His wide zone preferences also should mesh pretty well with what the Falcons have on hand.
Stefanski also will likely pound the table to bring back Kyle Pitts and will unquestionably be able to feature him in the offense. David Njoku and then rookie Harold Fannin were sensational at times for Cleveland and proved to be focal points in the passing game; there’s no reason to believe Pitts will regress and a lot of reasons to think he’ll excel under Stefanski. The team will also likely shop for a second capable pass catching tight end with blocking chops as the team focuses on making defenses miserable with two tight end sets and plenty of Bijan, but Drake London offers the size and physicality to serve as a de facto Harold Fannin for this offense if they don’t find another option.
Stefanski’s success rate with quarterbacks has been mixed, but solid. His best stints in Cleveland were with players like Joe Flacco and Jacoby Brissett who can absolutely sling it downfield and are fearless about doing so, which is why Flacco or Brissett might be options in Atlanta and Michael Penix Jr. might be excited about working with him. The Cleveland receiver cupboard was pretty bare—something the Falcons also have to address—but London gives him a better starting point than anything he’s had since OBJ. It’s worth noting that Stefanski has adapted his run-first, heavy play action preferences when the quarterback requires it, meaning he’ll be able to tweak his offense for Michael Penix Jr. and/or any other quarterbacks who join up. Having worked with Brett Favre, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Flacco, Watson, Brissett, Jameis Winston, and Shedeur Sanders, he’s had plenty of practice adjusting to a quarterback’s strengths and weaknesses across a spectrum of skills and styles.
While the Falcons might be moving on from Dwayne Ledford, it’s worth noting that Bill Callahan is a tremendous offensive line coach in his own right. With the future a bit uncertain for something like 4/5ths of the offensive line—Chris Lindstrom is definitely safe—having a coach of that caliber who produces disciplined, effective units is going to be a big deal.
Going beyond the nuts and bolts of the offense, Stefanski is a fit for what Matt Ryan and the franchise wanted from their next head coach. Stefanski was in the biggest shitshow organization in the NFL outside of maybe the Jets and Raiders and never lost his cool, never publicly threw anyone under the bus, and was praised for holding together the locker room despite all the losing and chaos. Stefanski had to deal with one of the most meddlesome owners in football throughout his tenure, an owner who was very happy to gently shove the blame boulder downhill, and never gave in to what had to be a real urge to be combative and clear his name. He’ll be someone you can count on to have the same demeanor whether the team is winning or losing.
Stefanski’s also shown a lack of ego about the defensive side of the ball that I think will prove to be a good thing. Jim Schwartz had no real ties to him but was obviously a great defensive mind, and now Stefanski is keeping on Jeff Ulbrich and company after a successful season with some room to grow. That allows him to focus on the team overall and the offense more specifically, and that side of the ball needs his acumen.
Finally, Stefanski will likely bring our long screen pass nightmare to an end. Too often under Zac Robinson in particular and Arthur Smith to a lesser extent, Atlanta ran heavily telegraphed screens that were not well-blocked and resulted in losses or minimal gains. Stefanki’s screen usage has been better-designed and more consistently effective, as we saw with Shedeur Sanders under center this past year, when the team leaned heavily on those passes to help a young quarterback get his feet under him and saw quite a bit of success.
Overall, Stefanski’s history paints him as a pretty bright offensive mind who forges a good rapport with players and stays even-keeled no matter what is going on around him, and his experience in Cleveland offers plenty of failures that he will hopefully learn and grow from. Expecting at least noticeable offensive improvement in year one with Atlanta seems quite reasonable.
Why it might not work
The same calm that Stefanski brings to the table can look like indifference or unwillingness to change when things go poorly. Browns fans saw a coach who was players-first but couldn’t always successfully get a handle on the drama in the locker room even if he never lost the room, which spilled into the open with Odell Beckham Jr., Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, and others. If things are going poorly, it’s not clear that Stefanski can pull his team out of it, and it is pretty clear he’s not going to make major vows about changes or break down what ails the Falcons. He was famous with Browns fans for declaring that he had to be better, had to check the tape, and so forth on a weekly basis, which will infuriate Falcons fans the same way it has with every head coach in the last 20 years.
Stefanski’s teams have consistently had problems with pre-snap penalties, particularly the past two years, which is something we all grew quite tired of under Raheem Morris. He’s also going to need to prove that his offense can feature wide receivers effectively—some of that falls on the front office for the talent in the building in Cleveland—and that he won’t be overly stubborn about hanging on to coaches that are scuffling, something Browns fans have repeatedly pointed out. In-game adjustments have also been perceived as a weakness for Stefanski, with Browns fans criticizing a dropoff in performance after the first couple of scripted drives.
While it’s clear the pursuit of Deshaun Watson was ownership-driven, it’s not clear how on board Stefanski was. What we do know is that a guy reputed to be a quarterback whisperer got surprising competence out of the least inspiring options imaginable, but also made pretty mediocre chicken salad out of chicken poop otherwise. If Stefanski was eager to get Watson, it calls his judgement with quarterbacks into question, especially since Watson struggled so mightily with the Browns throughout his tenure there.
We should talk about the Sanders situation in the service of a larger point about his handling of the Browns quarterback situation. There are plenty of Falcons fans who were against this hire because they perceive Stefanski as treating Sanders poorly and/or burying him on the depth chart, but that argument is mostly incoherent and inaccurate. What seems evident is that Stefanski, whether or not he wanted Sanders—I’m receptive to the argument that ownership/the front office drove that draft pick—was trying to park a fifth round pick who had serious problems under pressure in college for his rookie season to give him time to sit and learn. Once the team shipped away Joe Flacco, he turned to Dillon Gabriel because he felt he was more ready than Sanders—again, we can debate the merits of that, especially given how Gabriel played—and only relented when Gabriel got hurt.
The idea that Sanders should’ve gotten first team reps before then is, as many have pointed out, erroneous given that backups don’t really get those reps. The idea that Sanders came in and blew the doors off, clearly showing he was the best option, is also not really borne out by the numbers or the eye test, even if I do firmly believe he has much more upside than Gabriel. Stefanski and Tommy Rees cooked up a number of screens to try to give Sanders confidence and let the Browns’ collection of YAC options work, and the young quarterback showed he can uncork a pretty deep ball at times and extend plays, but he also ran himself backwards into sacks like he did at Colorado and threw 10 interceptions in just seven starts. If Sanders had been anybody else but the son of Deion Sanders, he likely never would’ve gotten on the field this year and his play could be properly evaluated as promising but needing significant work. Naturally, that’s not the world we’re living in; there are fans and even analysts who believe Stefanski is a huge loser who sat a potentially great quarterback out of some malicious desire to see him fail, and those folks are already hyper-critical of this hiring. That will die down if/when A) Sanders isn’t the starter in Cleveland or struggles under a new head coach and/or B) Stefanki is successful in Atlanta, but until then, you’ll see and hear it.
All that preamble is to say this: Stefanski was not out to get Sanders, but his inability or unwillingness to understand how the story was dwarfing everything else that was happening with the Browns and be clear and forthright about what his plans were for the quarterback sowed chaos that might have been more muted if he had taken a different tack. That situation is not going to transfer over to Atlanta, but both his bland, duck-down-and-hope-it-blows-over handling of Sanders and Watson does raise questions about whether Stefanski can manage any major controversies and questions that come up with the Falcons effectively, or if the franchise will become engulfed in the same kind of flames he “enjoyed” in Cleveland. He won’t have to deal with Jimmy Haslam, at least.
Will the hire work out?
As always, the answer is “we’ll see.” It’s not satisfying, but anything else is staking a claim just to stir things up for the sake of argument and traffic, and I’m not interested in chasing either at the moment.
We thought Arthur Smith would create a dominant ground game and create an effective, play action heavy passing attack, but it didn’t ever really come together. We thought Raheem Morris would have learned from the many years since his last stint and built a terrific, experienced staff given his deep connections while riding a talented offense and veteran quarterback to success, but that didn’t pan out, either. We think Stefanski will draw on his connections to build a good staff, re-establish a balanced offense, and let Jeff Ulbrich cook, but those are hopeful assumptions we have to see pan out. The new general manager has their work cut out for them to re-balance this roster and paper over some significant holes that might limit this staff, too.
What we do know is that Stefanski must answer questions about his ability to coax more out of this Falcons offense and ability to navigate adversity in a way that doesn’t raise major questions about his demeanor and competence, but also that he’s won games with lesser talent and . The Falcons are banking on Stefanski showing the promise and acumen he delivered in 2018 and 2019 with the Vikings and 2020 and 2023 with the Browns, chalking up much of his failure there to Cleveland’s extreme turbo dysfunction, which seems like a reasonable bet. If they’re right, the Falcons may finally get the kind of offensive mind and leader that can lift them out of their long malaise. If they’re wrong, Matt Ryan’s first big hire may look a lot like the ones the team made before he arrived.
