Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza’s NFL draft projections provide a clear consensus on the star’s future. It does not mean things cannot change before the 2026 NFL draft, but it would take a lot based on the latest mock draft predictions.
Mendoza had quite a 2025 which included winning the Heisman Trophy, leading Indiana to a Big Ten title, posting an undefeated regular season with the Hoosiers and a dominant Rose Bowl victory over Alabama as well. The Indiana quarterback has a chance to make 2026 even better by leading the Hoosiers to a national championship and becoming the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft a few months later.
It is challenging to find an NFL mock draft that does not predict the Las Vegas Raiders will select Mendoza with the No. 1 pick.
Let’s dive into what you need to know about Mendoza’s NFL draft projections.
The Raiders Could Cut Ties With Geno Smith After Selecting Fernando Mendoza With the No. 1 Pick in the NFL Draft
With Pete Carroll out in Vegas, Geno Smith’s days with the Raiders also appear to be numbered. This does not mean that Las Vegas will necessarily cut ties with Smith this offseason.
Yet, it is hard to imagine Smith being the Raiders QB1 when Week 1 rolls around for the 2026 NFL season. Smith’s two-year, $75 million contract makes this offseason’s decision a bit more complicated given his deal is set to go through 2027. Las Vegas has an out after the 2026 season that would allow the franchise to release Smith without taking a dead cap hit, per Spotrac.
Fernando Mendoza NFL Draft: Indiana QB a Heavy Favorite To Be the No. 1 Pick in NFL Mock Drafts
All this has Mendoza as the heavy favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft. With Oregon’s Dante Moore returning to Eugene, the path is even clearer for Mendoza to be selected by the Raiders. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler outlined why Las Vegas is expected to take Mendoza with the No. 1 pick.
“The Raiders have drafted a quarterback in the first round four times during the Super Bowl era,” Brugler wrote in his January 15, NFL mock draft. “All four choices quickly backfired. JaMarcus Russell (2007) was out of the league after three years; Todd Marinovich (1991) lasted just two seasons with the organization; Marc Wilson (1980) won two Super Bowls with the Raiders, but he was a backup for both; Eldridge Dickey (1968) was moved to wide receiver.
“That would be the history working against Fernando Mendoza. But, with his happy-go-lucky attitude, you know Mendoza would welcome the challenge. Though he might not be the physical freak some desire in a No. 1 pick, Mendoza is impressive in two key areas of playing the position: pre-snap recognition and accuracy. I don’t think there is much mystery with this pick.”
Mendoza is sitting at -7000 to be the No. 1 pick with Miami pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. listed as a distant second in the NFL draft odds at +5000, per FanDuel. Heading into the national championship, Mendoza has thrown for 3,349 yards, 41 touchdowns and six interceptions while completing an impressive 73% of his passes in 2025. Mendoza added 284 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground this season.
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