Fan Notes from the Patriots’ divisional playoff win over the Texans

Hey, you guys remember that time the Patriots made the AFC Championship?

No, not that time. Not that time either. That time when the defense played lights out and the offense did just enough to put the game away.

No, dammit, that other time. Yeah, that’s the one, that Texans game where they picked off Stroud four times in the first half. You guys remember that? That was awesome.

1. I am on record, several times and across several different platforms, saying that there’s nothing about this NFL postseason would surprise me. Well as a nice change of pace from what usually happens with my takes, I was completely wrong on that. This might have been the wildest weekend of NFL football I have ever experienced, which is saying something based on what went down last weekend. But outside of the Seahawks-49ers game, not a single thing went the way I thought it would—and that has nothing to do with any final scores.
2. You’re here for the Patriots game, and we’re going to get there soon. But I can’t dive in without speaking about how Josh Allen lost another heartbreaker or how close we came to a Bears vs. Seahawks NFC Championship Game. Insane finishes to both of those games. Josh Allen in tears at the podium. Caleb Williams somehow finding Cole Kmet on the fade-away to send it to overtime. Man I love this sport.
3. I’d like to say that this Bills/Broncos game is finally going to be the one that teaches Josh Allen that it’s OK to just go down, you don’t have to take off and lead with your face every single time…but we all know that simply isn’t going to happen.
4. But you know what is going to happen? At least one more week of Fan Notes from the Game, because the Patriots took down the Texans to the tune of 28-16 in a game that could have been 42-10 just as easily as it could have been 17-13.
5. My confidence coming into this game was sky high; I couldn’t remember being more confident in a Patriots win. Which, in turn, had my confidence rattled harder than anything I could ever remember. Which left me sitting there at kickoff almost completely comatose and beyond clueless as to what was going to happen.
6. This game was, for the most part, exactly what everyone expected to see. A rough, gritty, field-position battle where the defenses dictated the pace of the game and whichever quarterback had a better day was going to come away with the W.
7. This is a safe space. We’re in the trust tree here, so we can all be honest. Drake Maye hasn’t looked great this postseason. He hasn’t looked terrible, and when the offense has needed a play, he’s made one. But he isn’t lighting the league on fire. His ball security has been atrocious. He needs to play better for the rest of the postseason.
8. Drake Maye has also played two of the best defenses in the entire NFL in back-to-back weeks. His left tackle, who isn’t fully healthy yet, is struggling, as is his rookie left guard. He’s facing a lot of pressure, and he doesn’t have clean pockets. Both of these things can be true at the same time. One doesn’t cancel out the other.
9. But I’ll say this: if both units continue to play exactly as well as they have been playing this playoffs, no better and no worse, the Patriots are going to…well, I won’t say it. But you all know how that sentence is going to end.
10. We’ll start with the offense, as I’ve gotten the semi-unpleasant Drake Maye business out of the way already. And honestly, the offense was fine. There’s a fairly prevalent, but (in my opinion) extremely misguided, view that the sole job of an NFL offense is to score points, and even when the defense is playing well, you still need to rifle it 50 yards down the field into triple coverage in order to prove to the world that you’re a great QB. But when your defense is playing well and you’re up against what would, in other realities, be remembered as a historically great defense on the other sideline, there’s a lot to be said for an offense that’s methodical, plodding, and efficient. The big knock is and continues to be Maye fumbling the ball, but that isn’t anything new (I put absolutely zero weight in his Hail Mary halftime pick). This would ideally be the kind of game you completely put away by halftime when you have the benefit of four first-half picks…but again, there’s a reason that a lot of folks picked Houston to win this game, and it had nothing to do with the Texans offense. New England put together multiple scoring drives and put the game on ice with a beautiful throw and an even more beautiful catch.
11. You might even call it a Boutte-ful catch. See that? See what I did there? I’ll see myself out.
12. I find myself completely torn on how the coaching staff is managing rushing duties. Mondre has clearly been the more valuable back this postseason; he has 26 rushes for 123 yards to go along with seven receptions for 86 yards over the last two games. Henderson has 21 for 52 on the ground and two catches for a total of seven yards—his one catch yesterday lost two. Mondre just seems to be the hotter hand right now, so I wouldn’t be upset with riding him for the rest of the postseason. But every single time Henderson gets the ball, I find myself sitting forward a little bit, waiting for him to break one. And I still think he’s due for a monster day at some point, so you have to keep him back there.
13. WR1 is going to be on a lot of folks’ offseason wishlists this year. And I get it; I really do. But I honestly don’t know how much of a priority it needs to be. This is a unit that works. They Voltron their way to gains. They have a deep threat (Boutte), a slot guy who can get open (Douglas), a versatile veteran who catches almost everything that comes his way (Diggs), a red zone threat (Henry), a high-upside rookie with home-run potential (Williams), and two backs who can make receptions on checkdowns. Mack Hollins should be coming back this week, too—or at least I hope he is. That was a sneaky underrated loss for this offense. I’m not saying another receiver would be a bad thing. But I’m OK riding with this group next year as well.
14. I initially misspelled “home-run” as “home-rum” in that last note, and now I’m thirsty. So I’d better get a move on so I can get back to hydrating. I’m 14 notes in and I’m still on the offense.
15. The reason for that, though, is that this offense deserves more credit than I think they’re getting today. And again, I get it; with the way the New England D played yesterday, the Patriots offense is whoever is following Marot Robbie down the red carpet at some pointless celebrity event. But they put up 248 yards of offense and scored 21 points. Drake Maye threw for three touchdowns. He also diagnosed pressure, none more important than when the Texans sent six on 4th and 1, all of whom got picked up, and Pop Douglas exploited the open space for a 28-yard TD catch and run.
16. How do you rate a scenario when an elite unit goes up against a decent unit and the elite unit gets the better of the decent unit, but not enough for the elite unit’s team to win the game? Because that’s where we’re at with this Patriots offensive line. They did… OK…against the best D-line in the league. The Patriots tried a lot of quick-release routes and screens that got blown up almost immediately in order to negate the pass rush, but when that wasn’t working, they switched to out routes and the mid-range stuff that found success.
17. OK, enough on the offense. I think we all get it. They can play better, but they played well enough.
18. The question is: could this New England defense have played any better? Sure, CJ Stroud looked completely lost out there. He built off the momentum he gained last week against the Steelers and went all in on the suck yesterday. But there’s a reason he was so lost out there, and it’s because of the punishing, dominant group of guys lined up across from him.
19. At absolutely every level, the Patriots’ defense got the better of the Texans. I guarantee you that a conversation was had in the Houston locker room over whether or not to send Stroud back out there or whether Davis Mills would be a better option. Honestly, just punting on first down was probably their most viable offensive strategy, hoping the D could get a turnover or a defensive score.
20. Especially because the Texans got absolutely zero help from the running game. 48 yards on 22 combined carries, with the longest run being a 10-yard Stroud scramble. This is a Texans team that has rushed for 118, 134, and 164 yards in the last three games, respectively, and it was a prime day to run the ball weather-wise. I just don’t see any team moving Williams, Tonga, and Barmore off their lines. Running backs have only a better chance of succeeding through the A- gaps than Poindexter has getting into The Midvale School for the Gifted.
21. Business idea: Houston-area diners should offer a “Stroud Scramble” platter, where you bury really runny eggs under a bunch of hash browns.
22. Why Stroud kept throwing at Gonzalez, I’ll never know. Maybe because New England kept it pretty simple in the secondary, with Gonzo taking the right side of the field and Davis the left, and since Davis picked off Stroud twice in the first half Stroud thought he should try the guy on the other side of the field.
23. To be fair, with Collins out, and then Dalton Schultz leaving early, the Texans were a rudderless ship. But injuries happen. You need someone else to step up.
24. Wild that Schultz was still Houston’s second-leading receiver on the day, courtesy of a busted coverage 42-yard pickup.
25. The bottom line is, if you throw at Carlton Davis, there’s simply zero chance the receiver is catching that pass. Davis is going to pick it off. Or, he’s going to draw a DPI call that sets you up inside the 25. Either way, you ain’t making that catch.
26. I knew this game was more or less over when Chaisson forced Stroud to just kind of close his eyes and huck it up there, which Marcus Jones turned into a pick-six. I predicted that the Patriots would need Jones to come up big in the return game, as points and field position would be at a premium. But a pick six is just fine too.
27. So now, the Patriots are on to the AFC Championship Game. The murderers’ row of defenses they’re up against another wagon of a unit coming down the pike, coupled with what is arguably the best homefield advantage in all of professional sports. You can talk about the schedule if you want to. You can talk about how the Patriots have beaten an O-lineless Chargers team, a decimated Houston offense, and will now be playing a Broncos team without their starting QB. And I’ll agree all day that this is one of the strangest playoffs, capping off one of the strangest seasons, in recent memory. But the reality is that every team in the NFL kind of sucks this year. The most complete (in my opinion) team, the Rams, have barely squeaked by in their last two games and now have to travel to a stadium whose fanbase likely has a few things to say about my prior Denver homefield advantage comment. So if a bunch of flawed teams are all playing each other, doesn’t that level out the field a bit?
28. Somewhere out there, there has to be one degenerate gambler who took a $5 flyer on a Drake Maye vs. Jarrett Stidham AFC Championship at +25,000. People have bet on weirder things.
29. Credit to the Foxborough Faithful yesterday; on a cold, sleety, wintry New England Sunday, you guys brought it. You can often hear the beer vendors going up and down the aisles hawking their wares when you watch Patriots home games on TV, but there was some deafening noise piping its way into my living room when the Texans were on offense. So way to close out the home season strong.
30. I’ll say this: if the Broncos do win on Sunday, I’m going to be pulling for Seattle harder than I have ever rooted for a non-Patriots team in my life. All the love and respect in the world to Matt Stafford and company, but the chance to watch the sports media spent two weeks stumbling all over themselves trying to find compelling storylines to accompany a Jarrett Stidam vs. Sam Darnold showdown is just too hilarious to pass us.

I’ll once again close with this: this is fun. I’m having a blast watching the Patriots this season. My expectations have been met, and they’ve been exceeded, and now there’s a chance for this team to do something I thought wouldn’t even be a remote possibility for at least another year or two. So keep on enjoying it. This time next month, there won’t be any more football. So savor every last weird bounce, controversial catch, bad call, and sack dance that you can.