The New England Patriots are one win away from playing for the Lombardi Trophy, but to punch their ticket to Super Bowl LX in February, they’ll need to do something the franchise has never accomplished: beat the Broncos in Denver during the playoffs.
The Patriots advanced to the AFC Championship Game by defeating the Houston Texans 28-16 at Gillette Stadium in Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round game, while the Broncos defeated the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in overtime of their AFC Divisional Round matchup Saturday.
The Broncos, as the No. 1 seed, will host the Patriots in the AFC title game. It’s the Patriots’ first conference championship game appearance since 2018 and their 14th trip in the 21st century.
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The major storyline entering this game is the season-ending injury to Broncos starting quarterback Bo Nix, who fractured his ankle late in Denver’s victory over the Bills. Jarrett Stidham, whom the Patriots drafted in 2019, is expected to start at quarterback for the Broncos.
Will the Patriots reach the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2018 campaign? Check out our Patriots-Broncos preview below.
Recent head to head
The Patriots and Broncos have squared off only twice since 2017, with the latest matchup coming on Christmas Eve in 2023. The Pats won that game 26-23 in Denver on a 56-yard field goal by Chad Ryland in the final seconds. Bailey Zappe was the starting quarterback for the Patriots.
The Patriots have played the Broncos in the playoffs five times, and the only time New England emerged victorious was in the 2011 postseason at home. The other four games were all in Denver, including a pair of AFC title game defeats to Peyton Manning in the 2013 and 2015 playoffs.
- 1986 AFC Divisional Round: 22-17 Broncos
- 2005 AFC Divisional Round: 27-13 Broncos
- 2011 AFC Divisional Round: 45-10 Patriots
- 2013 AFC Championship Game: 26-16 Broncos
- 2015 AFC Championship Game: 20-18 Broncos
Key stats to know
Playing on the road in a playoff game is typically a tough spot for a young quarterback, and Drake Maye has yet to play a road postseason game. But there are reasons for New England fans to be optimistic about Maye’s chances of delivering a great performance in Denver.
Maye has actually played better on the road than at home this season. He completed 72.1 percent of his passes for 2,186 yards with 17 touchdowns, three interceptions and a fantastic 120.2 passer rating in eight road games during the regular season.
The Broncos gave up 30 points to Josh Allen and the Bills in the Divisional Round, but their defense ranks among the league’s best units. That group finished the regular season ranked No. 2 in yards allowed per game, No. 1 in yards allowed per play, No. 2 in touchdowns allowed, No. 5 in EPA per play allowed and No. 3 in points allowed per game.
Patrick Surtain II is the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year and considered the league’s top cornerback. Maye will have to be aware of where Surtain is on the field at all times.
Patriots’ keys to victory
Red zone defense
The Patriots ranked 23rd in red zone defense, as measured by opponent scoring percentage (TD only), during the regular season. They’ve been almost lights out in the playoffs, though, allowing only one touchdown in six opponent trips inside the 20-yard line.
They held the Texans to only one touchdown in four red zone trips in the Divisional Round.
Establish the run game, and get Drake Maye on the move
The Bills had great success on the ground versus the Broncos in the Divisional Round, racking up 183 yards (5.1 per carry). Bills running back James Cook ran for 117 yards and quarterback Josh Allen took off for 66 yards.
Allen was able to escape the pocket a few times and pick up yards with his legs. Maye has the athleticism to do that, too, and should look for similar opportunities to run against the Broncos defense.
The Patriots rushing attack found its stride late in the regular season, and that success has carried into the playoffs. Over the last seven games, the Patriots have averaged 156.1 rushing yards per game (5.25 per carry).
Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has six total touchdowns (four rushing, two receiving) during that span. If he can wear down the Broncos defense — like he did late vs. the Texans — and help the Patriots dominate the time of possession battle, his team will be in good shape.
Broncos’ keys to victory
Jarrett Stidham doesn’t try to do too much
The Broncos defense is good enough to hold the Patriots under 20 points, and if they pull that off, Stidham wouldn’t have to play at an elite level to help Denver win. He just needs to be a game manager and not turn the ball over.
Stidham has eight touchdown passes and eight interceptions, along with a 59.6 completion percentage, over 20 career regular season appearances (four starts). He hasn’t thrown a pass in the regular season since the 2023 campaign and has zero playoff experience.
If Stidham tries to win the game with risky plays, Denver is going to lose.
Force turnovers
The likelihood of the Broncos scoring a lot of points with Stidham at quarterback is pretty low, so the margin of error for Denver’s defense will be small. The Broncos need to force a turnover or two to swing the game in their favor. Denver forced five turnovers (three fumbles, two interceptions) in its win over Buffalo on Saturday.
The Broncos, despite having an excellent defense, forced the fourth-fewest turnovers in the regular season with 14. So it remains to be seen whether they can cause a similar amount of havoc Sunday against the Patriots.
That said, New England has had ball security issues in the postseason. The Pats turned the ball over twice against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round and three times versus the Texans in the Divisional Round.
Prediction
This would be a really tough pick if Bo Nix were healthy. He has found ways to win all season, especially at home. He tallied 308 total yards and three touchdowns against the Bills. But with Stidham under center, the Broncos offense is nowhere near as formidable. The AFC title game is a pretty tough spot to make your first ever playoff start.
The Patriots have been road warriors all season with a perfect 8-0 record away from home. They also have a significant advantage at quarterback and a defense that is healthy and playing some of its best football of the season.
Denver is a difficult place to play, but there are no excuses for the Patriots. Losing to Stidham with a Super Bowl berth on the line would sting for a very, very long time.
Score: Patriots 24, Broncos 13
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