Le Journal

Trump's Planned Mediation Between Egypt & Ethiopia Might Worsen Regional Tensions Authored by Andrew Korybko, Trump declared in a letter to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that he shared on social media that “I am ready to restart U.S. mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia to responsibly resolve the question of ‘The Nile Water Sharing’ once and for all’, adding in tacit support of Egypt’s position that “no state in this region should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile”. He concluded that “Resolving the tensions around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is at the very top of my agenda”. The fact is that “GERD Is Just A False Pretext For Egypt To Pressure Ethiopia” and “Ethiopia’s Final Filling Of Its Grand Renaissance Dam Debunked Years Of Egyptian Disinformation” in 2023. It was also assessed last summer that “Trump’s Latest Remarks About GERD Raise Questions About His Understanding Of This Dispute”, which weren’t corrected as proven by the substance of the abovementioned letter. Egypt might therefore be manipulating him into supporting its regional containment campaign against Ethiopia. To explain, GERD is a pretext for Egypt to justify meddling inside of and around Ethiopia by resuming its Old Cold War-era policy of backing armed anti-government groups and allying with Eritrea, whose independence was achieved with the help of Egyptian military aid during the decades-long civil war. The Ethiopian Foreign Minister suggested late last year that Eritrea is becoming an anti-Ethiopian state at its Egyptian patron’s behest just like Ukraine became an anti-Russian one at its NATO patrons’ behest. Egypt also exploited Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland in early 2024 for recognizing its 1991 redeclaration of independence in exchange for access to the sea to assemble a containment coalition with Somalia and Eritrea. Last week, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia is finalizing an alliance with Egypt and Somalia for removing Emirati influence from Somaliland, which follows the Somali Defense Minister requesting that the Saudis replicate their successful South Yemeni campaign there sometime soon. Circling back to Trump’s letter to Sisi, his tacit support of Egypt’s position on GERD – which is a faux dispute since this megaproject is purely about powering Ethiopia’s economic rise and not cutting off water to Egypt – might embolden Cairo to more aggressively contain Ethiopia. After all, Trump’s implicit backing of Egypt could predispose him to believing that any Ethiopian response to its potentially intensified regional containment is “unprovoked aggression”, which could lead to US pressure upon it. For example, Ethiopia might use force to expel the Eritrean troops that still occupy parts of its restive Tigray Region and/or deter a Saudi-led coalition campaign against Somaliland by recognizing it and deploying troops there (possibly in coordination with Israel). Given the influence that Sisi now clearly wields over Trump due to how pleased Trump is with Sisi mediating the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire, which Trump considers to be an historic achievement, Trump might lash out at Ethiopia in those scenarios. Ethiopia might therefore soon find itself in a difficult position where it’s coerced by the US through various means, from tariff threats to support for Egypt’s regional containment campaign, into strategic concessions at the expense of its sovereignty. If Ethiopia can’t incentivize Trump via a minerals deal into pivoting to its side or being neutral, then maybe its close Israeli partner can help due to their convergent interests in Somaliland, Israel’s own tensions with Egypt, and its much greater influence with Trump. Tyler Durden Mon, 01/19/2026 - 04:00

One Chart Says Time To Reload On This Commodity The precious metals landscape in recent times has been nothing short of record-breaking. New highs in gold and silver, but some of that momentum has been blown off on Thursday after a softer tone from President Trump on Iran eased safe-haven demand. Platinum, palladium, and other metals, such as copper, also cooled today, but one strategic commodity has yet to move higher in the metals bull run. That one strategic commodity that has yet to break out from multi-year lows is ammunition. It's a consumable input to military power, law enforcement capability, and civilian deterrence, and remains deeply depressed relative to the broader hard-asset complex. The ammunition industry remains stuck in a multi-year glut because of overproduction runs from the Covid period, when firearm and ammo demand went through the roof because the Democratic Party's dark-money NGOs unleashed protest and riots nationwide, and in some cases, burned entire city blocks down. Los Angeles Riots 2025, Marxists Burn Waymos Now, with renewed left-wing chaos emerging in Minneapolis and a clearer understanding of how violence is used as a political pressure against the Trump administration by unhinged left-wing activists, the setup becomes even clearer. Elevated social unrest risk is returning - all other metals are much higher, but ammunition prices for the most common round in America, 9mm, remain depressed around 20 cents per round. Ammunition checks every box for why it's a strategic commodity: it only becomes valuable when chaos erupts or supplies are threatened. It's probably time to reload. Tyler Durden Sun, 01/18/2026 - 21:35